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[苏州低息配资公司]当今的央行是如何威胁文明的?

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当今的央行是怎么要挟文明的?

股票配资

来历:人民币交易与研讨

近来,闻名智库米塞斯研讨所的代表ClaudioGrass发文称,有许多文章都只剖析了负利率和负收益债券的短期影响,很少有剖析着眼于未来,将钱银及其对社会自身的影响联系起来。他指出,这些方针不只不能治愈经济弊端,而且其成果会让时刻变得毫无价值,让人们只重视今日、而以献身明日为价值,乃至加快西方文化的式微。

当我被要求写一篇关于负利率和负收益率债券的影响的文章时,我以为这是一个从更宽广的视点看待这个问题的时机。有许多文章都在估测其或许的影响,重视它们在短期内的影响,但很少有剖析着眼于未来,将钱银及其对社会自身的影响联系起来。

WhenIwasaskedtowriteanarticleabouttheimpactofnegativeinterestratesandnegativeyieldingbonds,Ithoughtitwasachancetolookatthetopicfromabroaderperspective.Therehavebeenlotsofarticlesspeculatingaboutthepossibleimplicationsandfocusingontheirimpactintheshortrun,butit’snotveryoftenthatananalysislooksabitfurtherintothefuture,tryingtoconnectmoneyanditseffectonsocietyitself.

谁是受益者?

让咱们从一个根本的问题开端,这个问题的中心是:谁会从一笔被保证归还少于告贷金额的借款中获利?明显,是告贷人,而不是放款人,而在咱们的比如中是政府和那些与它密切相关的人。负利率和负收益债券的界说是有利于债款人,而不利于储蓄者。此外,这些方针是对根本经济准则和知识的凌辱。它们与一切有关钱银怎么运作的逻辑观念相冲突,在任何有机经济体系中都没有根底和先例。因而,现在除了荫蔽税,即通货膨胀外,咱们还有另一种机制将财富从一般公民从头分配给金字塔顶端的人。

Letusbeginwithabasicquestion,thatliesattheheartofthisissue:Whoprofitsfromaloanthatisguaranteedtopaybacklessthantheamountborrowed?Obviously,itistheborrowerandnotthelender,whichinourcaseisthegovernmentandthosecloselyconnectedtoit.Negativeratesandnegative-yieldingbondsbydefinitionfavorthedebtorsandpunishthesavers.Inaddition,thesepoliciesareanaffronttobasiceconomicprinciplesandtocommonsensetoo.Theycontradictalllogicalideasabouthowmoneyworksandtheyhavenobasisandnoprecedentinanyorganiceconomicsystem.Thus,now,inadditiontothehiddentaxthatisinflation,wealsohaveanothermechanismthatredistributeswealthfromtheaveragecitizentothoseatthetopofthepyramid.

因而,即便成果不合逻辑,中心权利组织也能够歪曲规矩的概念,其意义远远超出了日常经济活动。事实上,它终究将社会分为两类,一类是那些从这种果断和单方面改写规矩中获利的人,另一类是那些即便从未赞同也不得不为此付出价值的人。事实上,乃至并未寻求他们的定见。

Thus,thisveryconceptofacentralauthoritybeingabletobendandtwisttherules,evenwhentheresultisillogical,hasimplicationsthatextendwaybeyonddailyeconomicactivities.Infact,itultimatelypidessocietyintotwoclasses,thosewhoprofitfromthisarbitraryandunilateralrewritingoftherulesandthosewhoareforcedtopaythepriceeventhoughtheyneveragreedtoit.Infact,theyweren’tevenasked.

团体糜烂准则

当然,咱们也能够从哲学家卢梭所谓的社会契约论的团体视角来看待它,并以为这种揭露的和隐秘的再分配准则是合法的,乃至是良性的。你或许依然信任国家会在未来照料你,因而,你乐意献身你今日的一部分财富和储蓄来保证这一切产生。在这种情况下,咱们有必要记住,其时的央行体系并没有那么陈旧。它只存在了大约一百年,或许两个长时间债款周期的总和。第一个周期完毕于1971年,其时尼克松总统正式企图使黄金非钱银化,授权树立一个会集制,由少数人决议谁先接纳钱银,以何种利率,答应他们在某些财物类别创立泡沫,维护不同的要点职业,并运用这些工业为战役供给资金,使政治家和与他们关系密切的人致富。

Ofcourse,wecanalsolookatitfromthecollectiveperspectiveoftheso-calledsocialcontractofRousseauandarguethatthissystemofovertandcovertredistributionislegitimate,orevenbenign.Youmightstillbelievethatthestatewilltakecareofyouinthefuture,andthusyouarewillingtosacrificeapartofyourwealthandsavingstodaytomakesurethathappens.Inthatcase,itisusefultorememberthatthecurrentcentralbankingsystemisnotthatold.It’sonlybeenaroundforabouthundredyears,ortwolong-termdebtcyclescombined.ThefirstcycleendedwhenPresidentNixonofficiallytriedtodemonetizegoldin1971,empoweringacentralizedsystemwherebyafewdecidewhoreceivesthecurrencyfirstandatwhatinterestrate,allowingthemtocreatebubblesincertainassetclasses,protectdifferentkeyindustriesandtouseittofinancewarsandenrichpoliticiansandthoseclosetothem.

迄今为止,全球信贷总额约为240万亿美元。很难幻想这样一个数字,但假如你考虑到1万亿秒等于31709年,你或许会开端考虑这个体系的杠杆作用到底有多大。咱们不该忘掉,债款总是由消费带来的。也便是说,债款需求归还或革除,没有其他成果。此外,一个体系所能承当的债款是有限的,当一个依据信誉的体系不能进一步添加时,逻辑上的成果是整个体系的溃散。正如路德维希·冯·米塞斯很久以前描绘的那样,信贷扩张带来的昌盛,终究溃散是无法防止的。另一种挑选是,这场危机应该更早到来,成为自愿抛弃进一步信贷扩张的成果,仍是更晚到来,成为相关钱银体系的终究和彻底灾祸。

Sofar,totalcreditonaglobalscalestandsaround$240trillion.It’shardtoconceiveofsuchanumber,butifyouconsiderthat1trillionsecondsareequalto31,709years,youmightbegintowrapyourheadaroundjusthowleveragedthesystemhasbecome.Weshouldneverforgetthatdebtisalwaysconsumptionbroughtforward.Thatbeingsaid,debtsneedtobepaidbackorforgiven—thereisnootheroutcome.Inaddition,theamountofdebtthatasystemcantakeonislimited,andwhenacredit-basedsystemcan’tgrowanyfurther,thelogicaloutcomeisthecollapseofthewholesystem.AsLudwigvonMisesdescribedthisalongtimeago,thereisnomeansofavoidingthefinalcollapseofaboombroughtaboutbycreditexpansion.Thealternativeisonlywhetherthecrisisshouldcomesoonerastheresultofavoluntaryabandonmentoffurthercreditexpansion,orlaterasafinalandtotalcatastropheofthecurrencysysteminvolved.

这便是为什么各国央行开端企图经过将利率降至零以下、答应大型银行免费借债并一起减轻债款负担,来防止这种体系性溃散的原因。当然,这是咱们在曩昔十年中现已广泛目击的工作,这仅仅一个时刻问题,直到包含美联储在内的更多央行,运用相同的诈骗战略,让气球释放出一些空气,并以储蓄者为价值,对债款人进行去杠杆化。但是,这一问题能否成功处理,仍是一个很大的问题,尤其是在西方,人口结构问题现已存在了几十年,这使得添加也成为一个问题。各国政府施行了大规模移民方针,以应对人口老龄化趋势,但其履行却是灾祸性的;它不光没有复兴国家并影响出产力,反而终究摧毁了国家福利体系。

Thisisthereasonwhycentralbanksstartedtryingtoavoidthissystemiccollapsebytakinginterestratesbelowzeroandallowingthebigplayerstotakeondebtforfreeandtoreducetheirdebtburdenatthesametime.This,ofcourse,issomethingthatwealreadywitnessedextensivelyduringthepastdecadeanditisjustamatteroftimeuntilmorecentralbanks,includingtheFederalReserve,usethesamefraudulenttactictoletsomeairoutoftheballoon,andtodeleveragethedebtoratthecostofthesaver.However,itisveryquestionablewhetherthiscanbesuccessfullymanaged,especiallysincedemographicshavebeenaproblemfordecadesintheWest,makinggrowthaproblemtoo.Governmentsenforcedamass-immigrationpolicytofightthisagingpopulationtrend,yetitsexecutionhasbeendisastrous;insteadofrejuvenatingnationsandspurringproductivity,ithasendedupcrushingthenationalwelfaresystems.

因而,很明显,各国政府和央行行长现在挑选的路途是彻底不行继续的,他们企图在短期内打补丁以阻挠不行防止的内爆,简直是不或许的,而这内爆现已酝酿了几十年。假装是白费的,也是单纯的。正如哲学家安·兰德所说,咱们能够忽视实际,但咱们不能疏忽忽视实际的结果。

Itisthusclearthatthecurrentpaththatgovernmentsandcentralbankershaveselectedisutterlyunsustainableandthattheirattemptsatshort-termpatcheshavelittlehopeofstoppingtheinevitableimplosion,whichhasalreadybeendecadesinthemaking.Pretendingotherwiseisasfutileasitisnaïve.AsAynRandputit,wecanignorereality,butwecannotignoretheconsequencesofignoringreality.

去文明效应

负利率便是这些短期补丁的一个很好的比如,仅仅在这种情况下,它们不只不能治愈咱们的经济弊端,而且实际上弊大于利。

Negativeinterestratesareagreatexampleoftheseshort-termpatches,onlyinthiscase,theyarenotjustuselessasacureforoureconomicills,buttheyactuallydomoreharmthangood.

这项方针的成果是时刻变得毫无价值。一个人辛辛苦苦挣来的钱,留作有备无患或子女教育之用,正一天一六合削减,而不是像逻辑上所说的那样增值,出产和储蓄也就没有意义了。每个人早晨起床,努力工作以到达更高的日子水平的根本动机被移除,因而,时刻变成了一个没有任何价值的维度。假如依据政府法则,人们不能再储蓄了,那么除了消费就没有其他办法了。跟着一切传统上安全的出资挑选都消失了,他们只剩下了在遭到操作的金融市场上投机的挑选,以及随之而来的巨大风险,尤其是现在,咱们正挨近长时间债款周期的结尾。

Theoutcomeofthispolicyisthattimebecomesworthless.Asone’shard-earnedmoney,setasideforarainydayorforone'schildren’seducation,insteadofappreciating,aslogicwoulddictate,diminishesdaybyday,itdoesnotmakesenseanylongertoproduceandtosave.Thebasicmotivationforeachinpidualtogetupinthemorningandtoworkhardtoachieveahigherlivingstandardisremoved,andtime,therefore,turnsintoadimensionwithoutanyvalue.Ifpeoplecan’tsaveanylonger,bygovernmentdecree,thenthereisnootherwaythantoconsume.Andwithalltraditionallysafeinvestmentoptionsgone,theyareonlyleftwiththeoptionofspeculatinginriggedfinancialmarkets,andthemassiveriskthatcomeswithit,especiallynow,whenwe’renearingtheendofalong-termdebtcycle.

因而,个人越来越依赖于国家,由于自在日子的根底是经济独立,而储蓄则能让你自给自足。一个成功的体系的根底要求人们过着面子的日子,而且知道他们必须先出产再消费。

Theinpidualisthusturnedmoreandmoreintoastatedependent,asthebasisforafreelifeisfinancialindependenceandtheabilityhavesavingsonthesidethatkeepyouself-reliant.Thefundamentofasuccessfulsystemrequiresinpidualsthatliveadecentlife,knowingthattheymustfirstproducebeforetheycanconsume.

群众被练习、被逼迫消费和花钱,他们不用买他们不需求的东西。咱们的钱银准则与这种公共方针相结合,导致了大规模的过度消费,对财富的损坏,对本钱的耗费,对天然的损坏和克扣。

Themassesaretrainedandforcedtoconsumeandspendmoneytheydon’thavetobuythingstheydon’tneed.Ourmonetarysystemincombinationwiththiskindofpublicpolicycausesmassoverconsumption,thedestructionofwealth,capitalconsumption,andthedestructionandexploitationofnature.

假如人们有才能储蓄,他们就会显著地添加社会价值,由于一旦他们积累了所需的资金,他们就能够在今后的阶段进行出资,然后协助别人取得成功,完成经济独立。爸爸妈妈能够协助他们的孩子,出资者能够协助萌发中的新公司,为整个经济和社会带来立异的主意。跟着这种良性循环的继续,依据出产力、长时间思维和负职责的财务管理,水涨船高。

Peoplesignificantlyaddvaluetosocietyiftheyareabletosave,asthisallowsthemtoinvestatalaterstage,oncetheyhaveaccumulatedasmuchasneeded,andtherebyaidothersintheirowneffortstosucceedandtoreachfinancialindependence.Parentscanhelptheirchildrenandinvestorscanhelpbuddingnewcompaniesthatbringinnovativeideasthatbenefittheeconomyandsocietyasawhole.Asthisvirtuouscyclecontinues,basedonproductivity,long-termthinking,andresponsiblefinancialmanagement,therisingtideliftallboats.

相反,当这种天然进程被强行损坏和反转,其结果是有害的且深远的:大规模的过度消费,对财富的损坏,对天然和环境的开发,都是这种体制性的、大规模的短期思维推进的症状,也都是被逼只重视今日而献身明日的症状。

Tothecontrary,whenthisnaturalprocessisforciblydisruptedandreversed,theeffectsaredeleteriousandfar-reaching:massoverconsumption,thedestructionofwealth,andtheexploitationofnatureandtheenvironmentareallsymptomsofthisinstitutionalandmassivepushtowardsshort-termthinkingandofbeingforcedtofocusjustontoday,attheexpenseoftomorrow.

更广泛的影响

因而,危如累卵的不只仅世界经济,还包含西方文化的加快式微,西方文化以自在主义和基督教为根底,为涣散的欧洲供给了根底,答应产品和服务的竞赛,特别是思维的竞赛。这种风险的阑珊也不是什么新鲜事,由于它始于第一次世界大战之后,其时欧洲转向了一种愈加会集的办法,各种团体主义思维导致了各式各样的割裂,咱们今日依然能够在现代社会中看到。今日,咱们看到这种式微正在加快,由于咱们的经济体系简直无法继续保持,咱们的政治和社会乃至更快地转向部落,或许更精确地说,是移交给政治共同体,为了毫无意义的夙怨而彼此争斗。与此一起,他们的注意力都从真实的要挟中被飞散了,即政府和中心银行对他们的未来和他们孩子的未来构成的要挟。

Thus,whatisatstakeisnotonlytheworldeconomy,buttheacceleratingdeclineofWesternculture,which,basedonliberalismandChristianity,laidthefoundationforadecentralizedEuropethatallowedforcompetitionofgoodsandservicesbutespeciallythecompetitionofideas.Thisdangerousdeclineisnothingnew,either,asitbeganafterWorldWarI,whenEuropeturnedtowardsamorecentralizedapproach,withallsortsofcollectivistideascausingallkindsofschismsthatwestillseetodayinmodernsocieties.Today,weseearapidaccelerationofthisdecline,asoureconomicsystemcanbarelyremainstanding,andasourpoliticsandoursocietiesdevolveevenfasterintotribalormorepreciselyintopoliticalidentitygroups,fightingeachotherovermeaninglessfeuds.Allthewhiletheyaredistractedfromtherealthreat,theonethatgovernmentsandcentralbanksposetotheirfutureandtotheirchildren’sfuture.

只需人们惧怕自在,过错地把自己的职责托付给中心政府,期望就迷茫了。现在是时分独立考虑一下,今日的中心集权准则是否真的有意义,它是否可继续,还能继续多久。假如这些问题的答案吓到你了,那么盼望从上述办法中得到处理方案是毫无意义的。那么,是时分采纳直接和负职责的行动了,拿出一个牢靠的方案、私家具有的实体财物和一个不依赖于掌权者的一时冲动和翻云覆雨的长时间战略。

Aslongaspeopleareafraidoflibertyandfalselydelegatetheirself-responsibilitytoacentralauthority,hopeisdim.It’stimetothinkindependentlyaboutwhethertoday’scentralizedsystemreallymakessense,ifitissustainable,andforhowmuchlonger.Iftheanswerstothesequestionsscareyou,itispointlesstoexpectsolutionstocomefromabove.Itisthentimetoactdirectlyandresponsibly,withasolidplan,hardphysicalassetsprivatelyowned,andalong-termstrategythatdoesnotdependonthewhimsandcapricesofthoseincharge.

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